Combining remote sensing and household level data for regional scale analysis of land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon

Land cover change in the Brazilian Amazon depends on the spatial variability of political, socioeconomic and biophysical factors, as well as on the land use history and its actors. A regional scale analysis was made in Rondônia State to identify possible differences in land cover change connected to spatial policies of land occupation, size and year of establishment of properties, accessibility measures and soil fertility. The analysis was made based on remote sensing data and household level data gathered with a questionnaire. Both types of analyses indicate that the highest level of total deforestation is found inside agrarian projects, especially in those established more than 20 years ago. Even though deforestation rates are similar inside and outside official settlements, inside agrarian projects forest depletion can exceed 50% at the property level within 10–14 years after establishment. The data indicate that both small-scale and medium to large-scale farmers contribute to deforestation processes in Rondônia State encouraged by spatial policies of land occupation, which provide better accessibility to forest fringes where soil fertility and forest resources are important determinants of location choic

Biophysical suitability, economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R 2 = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R 2 = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage

Timing of singleton births by onset of labour and mode of birth in NHS maternity units in England, 2005-2014: A study of linked birth registration, birth notification, and hospital episode data

BACKGROUND: Maternity care has to be available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. It is known that obstetric intervention can influence the time of birth, but no previous analysis at a national level in England has yet investigated in detail the ways in which the day and time of birth varies by onset of labour and mode of giving birth. METHOD: We linked data from birth registration, birth notification, and Maternity Hospital Episode Statistics and analysed 5,093,615 singleton births in NHS maternity units in England from 2005 to 2014. We used descriptive statistics and negative binomial regression models with harmonic terms to establish how patterns of timing of birth vary by onset of labour, mode of giving birth and gestational age. RESULTS: The timing of birth by time of day and day of the week varies considerably by onset of labour and mode of birth. Spontaneous births after spontaneous onset are more likely to occur between midnight and 6am than at other times of day, and are also slightly more likely on weekdays than at weekends and on public holidays. Elective caesarean births are concentrated onto weekday mornings. Births after induced labours are more likely to occur at hours around midnight on Tuesdays to Saturdays and on days before a public holiday period, than on Sundays, Mondays and during or just after a public holiday. CONCLUSION: The timing of births varies by onset of labour and mode of birth and these patterns have implications for midwifery and medical staffing. Further research is needed to understand the processes behind these findings

Spatio-temporal land use/cover dynamics and its implication for sustainable land use in Wanka watershed, northwestern highlands of Ethiopia

Long-term land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics information is essential to understand the trends and make necessary land management interventions, such as in the highlands of Ethiopia. This study analyzed six decades of LULC dynamics of Wanka watershed, Northwestern Ethiopian highlands. Two sets of aerial photographs (1957 and 2017), SPOT 5 and sentinel satellite imageries were analyzed. In addition, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and field observations were used to identify the drivers and impact of LULC change. It was found that cultivated and rural settlement land (CRSL), bare land, and urban built up area have been continuously expanded at the expenses of mainly forest and shrub lands. Over the entire study period (1957–2017) while the bare land and CRSL have increased by about 59% and 20% respectively, forest and shrub lands have declined by 59% and 57% respectively. Urban built up area has also expanded. The impact of popula- tion pressure and expansion of CRSL land were considerable. The trend of LULC dynamics in the study watershed implies adverse impact on the quality and quantity of the land resource. Hence, appropriate land use planning and strategies that reduce expansion of cultivated land need to be practiced

How are time-dependent childbearing intentions realized? Realization, postponement, abandonment, bringing forward

Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.L’objectif de notre étude est d’identifier les facteurs qui facilitent ou inhibent la réalisation des intentions de fécondité. L’analyse s’appuie sur les deux premières vagues d’une enquête longitudinale menée en Hongrie. Les intentions de fécondité recueillies dans le cadre de la première vague concernent la période des trois années à venir, de la même façon que la variable de comportement mesurant la réalisation des intentions, à savoir, une naissance survenue au cours de cette même période. Les caractéristiques démographiques et socio-structurelles, de même que certaines dispositions personnelles recueillies lors du premier entretien ont été utilisées dans l’analyse. Nos résultats indiquent qu’à la fois l’âge, la parité, et la situation de couple jouent un rôle capital dans la réalisation des intentions et aussi que la situation d’emploi, l’appartenance religieuse et le niveau de satisfaction par rapport à la vie exercent une influence significative. Une différence prononcée entre hommes et femmes est mise en évidence en matière de situation d’emploi et également dans le domaine des valeurs et des dispositions personnelles

Psychological wellbeing, physical impairments and rural aging in a developing country setting

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There has been very little research on wellbeing, physical impairments and disability in older people in developing countries.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A community survey of 1147 older parents, one per household, aged sixty and over in rural Thailand. We used the Burvill scale of physical impairment, the Thai Psychological Wellbeing Scale and the brief WHO Disability Assessment Schedule. We rated received and perceived social support separately from children and from others and rated support to children. We used weighted analyses to take account of the sampling design.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Impairments due to arthritis, pain, paralysis, vision, stomach problems or breathing were all associated with lower wellbeing. After adjusting for disability, only impairment due to paralysis was independently associated with lowered wellbeing. The effect of having two or more impairments compared to none was associated with lowered wellbeing after adjusting for demographic factors and social support (adjusted difference -2.37 on the well-being scale with SD = 7.9, p < 0.001) but after adjusting for disability the coefficient fell and was non-significant. The parsimonious model for wellbeing included age, wealth, social support, disability and impairment due to paralysis (the effect of paralysis was -2.97, p = 0.001). In this Thai setting, received support from children and from others and perceived good support from and to children were all independently associated with greater wellbeing whereas actual support to children was associated with lower wellbeing. Low received support from children interacted with paralysis in being especially associated with low wellbeing.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this Thai setting, as found in western settings, most of the association between physical impairments and lower wellbeing is explained by disability. Disability is potentially mediating the association between impairment and low wellbeing. Received support may buffer the impact of some impairments on wellbeing in this setting. Giving actual support to children is associated with less wellbeing unless the support being given to children is perceived as good, perhaps reflecting parental obligation to support adult children in need. Improving community disability services for older people and optimizing received social support will be vital in rural areas in developing countries.</p

Does Community Context Have an Important Impact on Divorce Risk? A Fixed-Effects Study of Twenty Norwegian First-Marriage Cohorts

The decision to divorce may be affected by the characteristics of the local community. Community characteristics may be barriers to divorce, or they may increase the attractiveness of divorcing (e.g., access to a good remarriage market), but our knowledge of such influences is sparse. This study examines two such community-level factors: socio-economic conditions and the local marriage market. In this study, discrete-time hazard models with community-level fixed effects are estimated using register-based data on Norwegian first marriages during the period from 1980 to 1999, with longitudinal information on both the community and couple levels (N = 283,493). The results show that there are important community-level influences on couples’ divorce risk, but these change dramatically when fixed effects are introduced

Analyzing Childlessness

Childlessness has been on the rise in many European societies. In Germany, the UK, Austria, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, childlessness has increased starting with the 1950s cohorts. In these countries, about 20 % of the women born around 1965 will remain childless. In southern Europe and the former state-socialist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the rise in levels of childlessness is a more recent phenomenon. Yet among younger cohorts in these countries, childlessness has reached levels of 15 % or higher. In this introductory chapter, we summarize the long-term trends in childlessness and discuss the differences between European countries in the prevalence of childlessness. We also outline the structure and the logic of this volume

Immigrant fertility in West Germany: is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births?

In this paper on immigrant fertility in West Germany, we estimate the transition rates to second and third births, using intensity-regression models. The data come from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study. We distinguish women of the first and the second immigrant generations originating from Turkey, the former Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, and Spain, and compare their fertility levels to those of West German women. In the theoretical framework, we discuss competing hypotheses on migrant fertility. The findings support mainly the socialization hypothesis: the transition rates of first-generation immigrants vary by country of origin, and the fertility patterns of migrant descendants resemble more closely those of West Germans than those of the first immigrant generation. In addition, the analyses show that fertility differentials between immigrants and women of the indigenous population can largely, though not in full, be explained by compositional differences.Dans cet article relatif à la fécondité des immigrées en Allemagne, le passage du premier au deuxieme enfant et dans celui du deuxieme au troisieme enfant est estimé à partir de modèles de régression à risques instantanés. Les données utilisées proviennent de l’étude de Panel socio-économique allemand. On distingue les femmes immigrées de première ou de seconde génération originaires de Turquie, d’ex-Yougoslavie, de Grèce, d’Italie et d’Espagne, et leurs niveaux de fécondité sont comparés à ceux des femmes ouest-allemandes d’origine. Des hypothèses concurrentes sur la fécondité des immigrés sont discutées dans le cadre théorique. Les résultats vérifient principalement l’hypothèse de la socialisation : le passage au deuxieme et au troisieme enfant de la première génération d’immigrés varie selon le pays d’origine, et le profil de fécondité par âge des descendantes d’immigrées se rapproche plus de celui des femmes ouest-allemandes que de celui des immigrées de première génération. De plus, les analyses montrent que les différences de fécondité entre les immigrées et les femmes ouest-allemandes peuvent être en grande partie, mais pas totalement, expliquées par des différences de structure